English Version

A conviction can change a life. And sometimes, it’s based on a number.

“Oltre Ogni ragionevole dato” (which means “beyond a reasonable doubt”) is the Italian constitutional principle underpinning the presumption of innocence.

 But what happens when that doubt is erased by a misinterpreted statistic?

A probability becomes a certainty.

 A number becomes evidence.

Oltre Ogni ragionevole dato is a project by the University of Florence that tells real stories in which statistical errors have influenced judicial decisions. We will produce a 6-episode narrative podcast and a series of interactive public events to show how easily scientific evidence can be misunderstood.

Every donation will be matched by the University of Florence.

Because numbers never decide on their own.

 And understanding them is a matter of justice.

When Numbers Shape Verdicts

How often do we hear that a verdict has been reached “beyond a reasonable doubt”?

This is a fundamental principle of the legal system: the Italian Constitution establishes that a defendant is presumed innocent and cannot be convicted if the evidence leaves room for doubt.

But what happens when a conviction is based on data or statistics that are presented or interpreted incorrectly?

A number that appears objective.

 A probability turned into certainty.

The consequences of wrongful convictions are always devastating, and their causes are many: investigative errors, unreliable testimonies, weak reconstructions. Adding to this complexity, the growing use of scientific evidence and statistical data introduces new interpretative challenges.

When statistics enter the courtroom, the risk of error does not disappear.

 It hides in the details.

 And it can change a life.

Oltre ogni ragionevole dato  is a science communication project born to tell an uncomfortable truth: even numbers can be misunderstood. And when this happens in a trial, the consequences go far beyond paper — they are real.

What We Will Create with This Campaign

This campaign will fund more than just a podcast: it will support a broader public engagement initiative exploring the relationship between numbers, scientific evidence, and justice.

Over the course of twelve months, we will work on writing and producing the episodes, organizing live events, and creating content that makes complex topics accessible — even those often perceived as technical or distant from everyday life.

The idea is simple: start from real cases and compelling stories to show how statistics, probabilities, and reasoning errors can influence decisions that affect all of us.

The project will combine storytelling, research, public dialogue, and participatory experiences, with the goal of building a more aware community — one that is attentive to the value of critical thinking.

The Podcast

With your support, we will produce a 6-episode narrative podcast, inspired by the atmosphere of true crime but grounded in scientific rigor.

Each episode will explore a real legal case — from the story of Sally Clark to major media trials like O.J. Simpson, as well as Italian cases involving scientific evidence and environmental disasters — showing how numbers, probabilities, and statistics can shape the course of justice.

But we won’t stop at storytelling.

After reconstructing each case, we will go “behind the scenes” of the statistical evidence, explaining clearly and accessibly — without oversimplifying — the reasoning errors involved, the probabilistic fallacies that influenced investigators, experts, or courts, and why even an apparently objective number can be misleading.

The goal is not to determine guilt or innocence, but to help listeners develop a more critical perspective on data, quantitative evidence, and the role of science in trials.

Because understanding numbers is not just a technical skill — it is a form of informed citizenship.

Live Events

The podcast is just the beginning.

We want to turn these topics into public, participatory experiences, bringing the discussion on forensic statistics out of universities and into civic spaces.

We will organize at least one mock trial, inspired by real cases, involving legal professionals, statisticians, and students from the University of Florence School of Law, who will take on roles such as lawyers, expert witnesses, and prosecutors.

Some supporters will have the opportunity to participate directly as jurors, experiencing first-hand what it means to evaluate scientific evidence, interpret probabilistic data, and make decisions under uncertainty.

Alongside mock trials, we will host science cafés at the Biblioteca delle Oblate, in Florence — open events where we will discuss statistics, scientific evidence, error, and reasonable doubt through concrete cases, surprising examples, and conversations with researchers and legal experts.

These will not be lectures, but moments of dialogue designed to show how numbers shape the way we interpret reality — both inside and outside the courtroom.

All events will also be recorded and shared online, extending the project’s reach and impact.

Because data never speaks for itself.

It always depends on how it is interpreted.

Why Crowdfunding Matters

Every euro donated will be matched by the University of Florence through the UNIFI EXTRA+ program.

This means your contribution has double the impact:

€10 becomes €20, €50 becomes €100.

Our goal is €9,000, which will become €18,000 in total.

But crowdfunding matters for a deeper reason.

This project aims to bring outside academia tools that are too often confined to specialists — understanding how probabilities, data, and inference work in real-world contexts like courtrooms.

To do this, producing content is not enough.

 We need to build a community — an audience willing to engage, question assumptions, and develop a more critical perspective.

Crowdfunding is the first step in this process: not just a way to fund the project, but a way to demonstrate that there is real demand for scientific literacy applied to justice.

Supporting this project means more than contributing financially.

It means helping create a dialogue between research and society, and building a public space where numbers are not just tools of persuasion, but objects of understanding.

How We Will Use the Funds

Donations will support:

• the production of 6 podcast episodes (editing, sound design, distribution); 
• the organization of public events (science cafés and mock trials); 
• the communication and outreach of the project, with professional support — because between standard deviations and microphones, we don’t always win on our own. 

But above all, they will help build a community aware of the role of scientific evidence.

Supporting this project means contributing to a form of justice where numbers are not just persuasive tools, but instruments of understanding.

What If We Exceed the Goal?

Our target is €9,000 (matched to €18,000).

If we go beyond it, we will do more.

Additional funding will allow us to:

• produce more podcast episodes 
• organize additional mock trials 
• expand dissemination at a national level 
• further improve audio quality and visual communication 

Every extra euro will increase the project’s reach, accessibility, and cultural impact.

Because discussing data and justice is not an abstract exercise — it is an investment in the quality of public debate.

A statistical error may seem abstract.

 But its consequences never are.

Help us look beyond any reasonable data.

Who We Are

Giulia Cereda – Associate Professor of Statistics, Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications

Gabriele Lombardi – Researcher in Social Statistics

Alessandra Sanna – Associate Professor of Criminal Procedure

Paola Felicioni – Associate Professor of Criminal Procedure

Marco Malvaldi – writer and essayist

We are statisticians and legal scholars.

We work every day at the intersection of numbers and decisions.

The project is developed by the Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications “G. Parenti” at the University of Florence, with the involvement of the Department of Legal Sciences and the Festival of Criminal Justice.

It also includes the participation of the cultural association Caffè-Scienza, which promotes scientific knowledge and public debate on its social and ethical impact.

Italian well-known writer Marco Malvaldi collaborates on the project, contributing to the podcast’s narrative structure and public events.

REWARDS